Polymarket is preparing a long push into Japan, betting that prediction markets can eventually win a place inside one of Asia's toughest gambling and crypto rulebooks.
Polymarket is not trying to slip quietly into Japan. It is doing the slower, more expensive thing: appointing a local representative, building an audience before launch, and preparing for a regulatory process that may not produce approval until 2030.
According to a Bloomberg report on May 22, 2026, the prediction market platform has appointed Mike Eidlin, head of Japan at crypto firm Jupiter, to lead its expansion effort in the country. The company sees Japan as a large untapped market, people familiar with the matter told Bloomberg, though both Polymarket and Japanese regulators declined to comment on the plans.
The timing matters. Polymarket is under pressure to prove that its model can grow beyond offshore crypto users and election-cycle speculation. Its combined notional trading volume across the offshore exchange and US app fell about 9 percent to $10.3 billion in April, based on figures cited from Dune Analytics. That is still a large business by any normal standard, but it shows how quickly momentum can shift in prediction markets, especially as regulated rivals compete for the same flow.
Japan Is A Hard Market For This Bet
Japan is attractive because it has deep retail trading culture, high interest in politics and macroeconomics, and a large base of crypto users. It is also a difficult place to operate anything that looks even slightly like online betting.
The country's Penal Code treats habitual gambling as a criminal offense punishable by up to three years in prison, while operators of gambling businesses can face up to five years. Japan allows tightly controlled exceptions, including horse racing, certain public sports betting, and lotteries, but those carveouts are government-authorized. Prediction markets do not yet sit comfortably inside any of them.
That leaves Polymarket with a basic problem. Its strongest pitch is that event contracts are information markets, not casino products. Traders buy and sell probabilities on outcomes such as elections, interest rate decisions, sports results, and corporate events. Regulators may still see the same activity through a simpler lens: users risk money on uncertain outcomes.
Japan has also been tightening its posture toward online gambling. Authorities moved in 2025 to strengthen restrictions on internet casino activity, and the Financial Services Agency has been busy with a broader crypto overhaul that could move some oversight from the Payment Services Act toward the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act. That work may eventually help serious crypto businesses, but it also means regulators have a crowded agenda before they even get to prediction markets.
For now, Polymarket appears to be trying to build presence without crossing the line. Its Japanese X account has attracted more than 53,000 followers, and there are already more than 250 active Polymarket contracts tied to Japanese events, including Bank of Japan rate decisions and national elections. That demand is useful evidence. It shows that Japan is not just a theoretical market on a slide deck.
The US Fight Still Shapes The Japan Plan
Polymarket's Japan push cannot be separated from its US regulatory campaign. The company settled with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in 2022 over allegations that it operated an unregistered derivatives trading platform and agreed to block US users from its main exchange. It has since been working toward a more formal route back into the American market.
Bloomberg reported in April that Polymarket had been in discussions with CFTC Chairman Michael Selig about reopening its main exchange to US traders. The company is reportedly seeking to operate as a Designated Contract Market, which would put it under a recognized derivatives framework rather than the looser offshore structure that defined its earlier growth.
That matters for Japan because regulators tend to watch each other. If Polymarket can show that the US is willing to treat event contracts as regulated financial products, it has a stronger argument in Tokyo. If the US process stalls or narrows sharply, Japan will have little reason to move quickly.
Competition is another factor. Kalshi, Polymarket's most visible US rival, operates with fiat currency under CFTC oversight and has gained ground as institutional interest in event contracts has grown. Kalshi's more traditional structure may be less exciting to crypto-native users, but it is easier for regulators and large financial participants to understand. That is a real advantage.
What Founders Should Watch
For crypto and fintech founders, the lesson is not that Japan is suddenly opening its doors. It is that early positioning can matter years before a license arrives. Polymarket is setting up a local strategy, building social distribution, and creating a record of interest while it waits for the legal framework to catch up.
The reported discussion of a view-only mode fits that approach. Users could browse contracts and odds without placing trades, giving Polymarket a way to establish brand recognition and market data habits before any approval to take money. That is not a full business, but it can be a useful bridge in a country where premature launch could close doors permanently.
The bigger question is whether Japan will ever accept prediction markets as something more than gambling. If regulators decide the contracts provide useful pricing signals on politics, monetary policy, and public events, Polymarket could open a major Asian market and strengthen the case for similar approvals elsewhere. If they apply existing gambling rules without a new category, the path narrows quickly.
Polymarket currently lists Japan among restricted locations in its geographic restrictions guidance, meaning Japan-based users cannot place trades because of regulatory requirements. Whether that changes by 2030 will depend less on consumer demand than on the company's ability to persuade officials that event contracts can be supervised like financial markets. That is a hard argument, but it is the argument that will decide how far prediction markets can travel.
