Kalshi's prediction market on tech layoffs has surpassed $30 million in trading volume, with traders putting 83% odds on 2026 job cuts exceeding the previous year's total.
Traders on the prediction market platform Kalshi are wagering millions of dollars on a question that hits uncomfortably close to home for many of them: whether the tech industry's layoffs will keep accelerating. The answer, at least according to the market's current pricing, is a resounding yes.
The market, which asks whether information sector layoffs in 2026 will exceed the 447,000 recorded in 2025, has already topped $30 million in trading volume. That figure surpasses the $25 million wagered on the Best Actor category at the Oscars earlier this year. Trading volume is climbing at roughly 20% week over week, according to Kalshi COO Luana Lopes Lara, who discussed the market on a recent episode of The Axios Show alongside CEO Tarek Mansour.
What makes this market compelling is not the dollar amount but who is doing the trading and why. Prediction markets have historically centered on elections, sports outcomes, and macroeconomic indicators. A market focused squarely on tech job cuts signals something shifted in how workers and investors alike are processing the current employment landscape. People are not just passively reading layoff headlines anymore. They are putting money behind their expectations, and those expectations are grim.
Several major technology companies have already announced significant workforce reductions in 2026, including Meta, Amazon, and Oracle. These are not the pandemic-era overcorrection layoffs of 2022 and 2023, when companies that had overhired during the boom years trimmed headcount to rightsize operations. The current wave has a distinctly different driver: artificial intelligence is now actively replacing roles that were once considered safe.
Coding, software engineering, quality assurance, and certain categories of content moderation are among the functions being most heavily impacted. In some cases, companies are laying off full-time employees only to rehire them as contractors at lower rates and without benefits, a structural shift that reflects how organizations are reshaping their workforce strategies around AI capabilities rather than simply cutting costs. This is a fundamental reorganization of how tech companies think about labor, and the workers affected by it are paying attention.
The layoffs.fyi tracker, which has monitored tech job cuts since the pandemic, has recorded a steady climb in announcements throughout early 2026. That the trend is accelerating rather than stabilizing is precisely what Kalshi's market is reflecting. When 83% of market participants bet that layoffs will exceed the prior year's total, it tells you where sentiment really sits, regardless of what corporate earnings calls might suggest about innovation and growth.
What Prediction Markets Reveal About Workforce Sentiment
Kalshi, which gained mainstream attention during the 2024 U.S. presidential election, has been expanding aggressively into non-political markets. The platform's users can now trade on everything from celebrity lawsuits to weather events. But the tech layoffs market stands out because it functions as a real-time sentiment gauge for an industry that has traditionally projected relentless optimism. Silicon Valley's workforce has always had a complicated relationship with job security, treating stock options and venture funding as proxies for stability. Prediction markets cut through that narrative by forcing participants to attach a financial value to their outlook.
CEO Tarek Mansour framed the market as a tool for awareness, suggesting on The Axios Show that people should be able to position themselves accordingly, whether that means choosing a college major, negotiating a job offer, or planning a career pivot. There is a pragmatic logic to that view, even if it feels clinical. If AI is going to displace thousands of roles, having a transparent, market-based signal about the pace and scale of those displacements is arguably more useful than relying on anecdotes or company press releases.
For startup founders and operators, the implication is straightforward. The talent pool is about to get larger, and in many categories, cheaper. Experienced engineers and product managers who were commanding premium compensation packages 18 months ago are now competing for fewer positions. Companies that can move quickly to hire selectively will find unusual value in the current market. At the same time, founders building AI-native products should consider the reputational risks of being perceived as contributing to the very layoffs their tools help enable.
Watch whether other prediction market platforms like Polymarket or Metaculus launch competing tech layoff markets. If they do, and if volume continues to climb, it will confirm that Kalshi has tapped into something more durable than a passing headline cycle. The market for information about job losses has itself become a market, and right now, it is booming.
