Fresh US-Iran strikes are keeping metals under pressure, but the sharper story is not a classic safe-haven trade. It is the way a prolonged Hormuz disruption can raise the cost of the raw materials behind AI infrastructure.
The latest US strikes on Iranian targets should have been an easy bullish signal for gold. Instead, the metal fell to fresh 2026 lows on June 10, while silver also weakened. That is the contradiction investors need to understand. Geopolitical fear is still present, but it is now competing with a stronger dollar, higher bond yields, and renewed inflation worries that make non-yielding assets harder to hold.
The numbers matter because the original safe-haven story has changed. As MarketWatch reported this week, Comex gold was trading around $4,185 an ounce on June 10, more than 20% below its January record, while silver was near $64 an ounce after a much steeper fall from its own January high. Earlier in June, gold settled near $4,475 and silver near $75, so the move is not a straight panic bid. It is a market trying to price war risk and inflation risk at the same time.
That makes this different from a normal metals selloff driven by monetary policy alone. Fed hawkishness and inflation anxiety can push gold lower because investors demand yield and liquidity. A conflict around the Strait of Hormuz introduces another problem entirely. It threatens the flow of physical inputs that sit behind copper, zinc, fertilizers, chemicals, semiconductors, and the data centers now being built at extraordinary speed.
The Hormuz story is still led by oil because that is where the immediate political pressure sits. But the strait also touches less visible supply chains that are harder to replace quickly. Gulf producers account for a large share of sulfur and fertilizer trade, and sulfur is not a side issue for industrial metals. Sulfuric acid is used in copper leaching, zinc processing, and rare earth extraction. If exports remain constrained, the damage does not appear as one dramatic price spike. It shows up through thinner margins, slower expansions, delayed shipments, and higher downstream costs.
Copper is the metal where that pressure becomes easiest to understand. AI data centers are not just collections of chips. They are electrical systems, cooling systems, substations, backup power networks, and miles of wiring. Industry estimates often put copper use at roughly 25 to 30 tons for each megawatt of data center capacity, depending on design and power density. Multiply that across the hundreds of gigawatts of planned AI compute capacity and a copper squeeze becomes a tax on the whole buildout.
Silver sits in a more awkward position. It still attracts buyers during geopolitical stress, but it is also an industrial metal used in electronics, semiconductors, solar panels, and high-conductivity components. That means the same conflict can create two opposing signals. Investors may sell silver when rate expectations and the dollar move against precious metals, while manufacturers still face tight physical demand. The headline price can fall even as the industrial case remains intact.
The semiconductor supply chain is exposed in a different way. Helium has already become a warning sign after disruption to Qatari production removed roughly a third of global supply from the market and pushed suppliers into rationing. Helium is essential in chip fabrication because it helps manage cooling and process stability in advanced manufacturing. It is also difficult to substitute quickly, which is why a short interruption can become a planning problem for companies that normally live several quarters ahead.
Bromine and printed circuit boards add another layer. Bromine is used in flame retardants and electronics manufacturing, and Israel's ICL Group is one of the world's major producers. If the region remains unstable, board makers and electronics suppliers have to manage not only higher direct costs but also uncertainty around delivery schedules. That matters for Nvidia accelerators, custom AI chips, server racks, networking equipment, and the supporting hardware that hyperscalers need before any model can run at scale.
The practical takeaway is that gold and silver prices alone are no longer enough to read the market. The more important signal may be whether constrained inputs start moving from commodity desks into earnings calls. If copper, sulfuric acid, helium, and board materials stay tight through the back half of 2026, AI infrastructure costs will become harder to hide inside capex budgets. The metals market is not screaming panic. It is quietly asking whether the most expensive technology buildout of the decade has priced in the raw materials needed to finish the job.
Also read: Citi says AI data center bonds are finally being priced as the project finance deals they actually are • CoreWeave's $8.5 billion investment-grade loan rewrites how AI infrastructure gets financed • Einride's 74% Nasdaq Debut Reveals How Much the Market Is Paying for an Autonomous Future That Barely Exists Yet
