XRP could be heading for a punishing second quarter, with multiple analysts forecasting a relief rally followed by a steep correction that may push prices as low as $0.48.
XRP has barely moved in days. The fifth-largest cryptocurrency by market cap has been stuck between $1.30 and $1.35 for five consecutive sessions, trapped in a range that has defined its price action for nearly two months. But that sideways drift may be the calm before a volatile storm.
Several market analysts are now warning that XRP's correction is far from over, with some projecting a potential decline of 30% to 60% from current levels by late Q2 or early Q3. The culprit is a classic Elliott Wave pattern that suggests the token's recent stability is a temporary pause, not a bottom.
More Crypto Online, a widely followed technical analyst, laid out the case in detail this week. He argues that XRP has been grinding through a complex corrective structure since early February, failing to generate any meaningful impulse momentum. While the altcoin has held support at the lower boundary of its current range around $1.21, that floor has not been tested with conviction. The next decisive move, he suggests, will determine whether bulls retain any credible scenario or whether a deeper unraveling takes hold.
The structure he tracks points to an ABC corrective wave still unfolding. In practical terms, that means XRP could see a relief bounce in the coming weeks, potentially pushing toward resistance between $1.76 and $2.86, before sellers step back in and drive the price sharply lower. That final leg down, known as the C wave, could bottom anywhere between $0.98 and $0.48 based on his chart analysis. The lower end of that range would represent a roughly 60% decline from where XRP trades today.
This is not a fringe view. Chard Nerd, another respected market observer, arrived at a strikingly similar conclusion through an entirely different analytical lens. Drawing on XRP's behavior in previous market cycles, he highlighted a recurring pattern: after a significant peak, the token tends to retrace to its 200-week Exponential Moving Average, mount a relief rally toward the 20 and 50 EMA lines, and then ultimately collapse to bear market lows.
The historical parallel is hard to ignore. In the 2018 cycle, XRP surged past $3 before spending the better part of a year bleeding out to below $0.30. The 2021 cycle saw a similar dynamic, with a sharp rally followed by a protracted decline that wiped out the majority of gains. Both instances featured the kind of temporary bounce that lures optimistic buyers back in before the real damage is done.
Right now, XRP is consolidating around that critical 200-week EMA, a level that has acted as both support and a launching pad in previous cycles. Chard Nerd had expected the relief rally to materialize sooner, but the extended consolidation suggests the timeline may be shifting. When the bounce does arrive, likely between April and May, he sees it carrying XRP to the $1.80 to $2.00 range before the next leg down. His ultimate downside target sits between $0.90 and $0.70, a zone he believes the token needs to visit before any sustainable expansion can begin.
As NewsBTC reported, the convergence of these independent analyses from different methodological starting points is what makes the current setup worth watching. When analysts using Elliott Wave theory and historical EMA patterns land on overlapping conclusions, the signal-to-noise ratio improves considerably.
What This Means for XRP Holders
For investors holding XRP at current levels, the message is straightforward: be cautious about interpreting any near-term rally as a trend reversal. Both analysts agree that a bounce is likely coming, but they also agree it will probably be a trap for anyone positioning for a breakout. The relief rally, if it materializes, should be viewed as an opportunity to reduce exposure or hedge, not a reason to add leverage.
The broader context matters too. The crypto market in 2026 has been characterized by uneven momentum across major assets. Bitcoin has struggled to reclaim key psychological levels, and regulatory uncertainty continues to weigh on sentiment, particularly for tokens like XRP that have spent years navigating legal battles. While Ripple's partial legal victories provided a boost last year, the macro environment for altcoins remains fragile.
Watch the $1.76 level closely in April and May. A strong bounce that stalls below that zone would confirm the bearish thesis. Conversely, a sustained break above $2.86 with volume would invalidate the correction scenario and suggest bulls have regained control. Until one of those outcomes materializes, the path of least resistance appears to be down.
