Cardano is sitting at a historical support level that previously triggered an 80% to 200% price surge, and on-chain data suggests large holders are already positioning for a repeat.
While most large-cap cryptocurrencies have enjoyed a solid week, Cardano has barely moved. Ethereum and XRP both climbed nearly 10% over the last seven days, yet ADA managed a meager 3% gain, trading around $0.26. For investors holding the token, the underperformance has been frustrating. But a closer look at the charts reveals a setup that has caught the attention of several analysts.
Crypto analyst Ali Martinez recently highlighted on social media that ADA has returned to a demand zone around $0.249. This specific level has served as a launching pad before. In September 2023, Cardano bottomed at this exact support before rocketing over 200% to roughly $0.80 by early 2024. A similar pattern played out earlier that same year, when a touch of $0.249 preceded an 85% rally. The asset tested this level again in March and returned to it in mid-April, forming what technicians call a double bottom.
Retail traders may be losing patience, but whale addresses are doing the opposite. Data from IntoTheBlock reveals a clear divergence pattern. Over the past nine weeks, the number of wallets holding 10 million or more ADA has climbed to a four-month high, increasing by more than 5%. Collectively, these large holders have accumulated approximately $214 million worth of the token during this stretch.
This behavior matters because it typically signals a tightening of available supply on exchanges. When whales absorb tokens at historic support levels, the stage is set for what traders call a supply shock. Once demand picks up and available circulating supply drops, price movements tend to be sharp and upward.
The Van Rossem Upgrade Adds Fundamental Weight
Technical patterns alone do not tell the full story. On April 16, Cardano successfully executed the Van Rossem hard fork, a protocol upgrade designed to improve network scalability and transaction throughput. Hard forks often generate short-term volatility due to "buy the rumor, sell the news" dynamics, but ADA held steady at $0.25 following the activation.
For a network that has faced persistent criticism over slow development timelines, completing a major upgrade without price disruption is a quiet win. It signals that the infrastructure layer is maturing, even if the token's price action has not yet reflected that progress.
What Comes Next
The immediate hurdle for ADA sits at $0.2772. A convincing break above this resistance would validate the bullish thesis and open the door to a move toward $0.38 by mid-2026. Beyond that, more ambitious forecasts point to a longer-term climb back toward $2.00, provided the current support structure holds.
The risk is equally straightforward. If ADA loses the $0.249 support on sustained volume, analysts have identified $0.21 as the next downside target, a level not seen in several years. Support levels are only as strong as the buyers defending them, and while whale accumulation is encouraging, broader market conditions will ultimately dictate whether Cardano can repeat history or break below it.
For now, the data paints a picture of quiet accumulation at a historically significant price point. The Van Rossem upgrade provides fundamental backing, and on-chain metrics show large holders are willing to bet on a reversal. What remains to be seen is whether the broader market will cooperate. Watch the $0.2772 resistance closely. A weekly close above it would be the first real signal that this setup is moving from pattern recognition to price action.
