Paradigm is building a professional trading terminal for prediction markets, signaling that betting on real-world events is evolving from a retail curiosity into an institutional asset class.
When one of crypto's most influential venture capital firms starts building infrastructure for prediction markets, the sector has officially moved beyond novelty. Paradigm, the $2.5 billion fund behind some of the industry's largest investments, is developing a trading terminal designed specifically for professional traders and market makers operating in prediction markets. The effort, first reported by Fortune, is being led by partner Arjun Balaji and has reportedly been in the works since late 2025.
The move makes strategic sense when you look at the numbers. Monthly prediction market notional volume hit roughly $25.7 billion in March, up from just $1.2 billion in early 2025, according to Dune Analytics data. Transaction counts surpassed 207 million that same month, a record. That kind of growth curve demands professional tooling, the same way crypto's 2017 boom eventually gave rise to sophisticated trading desks and algorithmic market makers.
Paradigm has been one of the most aggressive backers of Kalshi, the regulated prediction market platform that recently raised over $1 billion at a staggering $22 billion valuation. Paradigm participated in three consecutive Kalshi funding rounds in 2025 alone, and cofounder Matt Huang sits on the startup's board. Sources familiar with the terminal project say it is not designed to compete with Kalshi's platform. Instead, it would provide the kind of professional interface that sophisticated traders expect when deploying serious capital, essentially infrastructure that makes platforms like Kalshi more liquid and efficient.
This is a familiar playbook in financial markets. Think of how Bloomberg Terminals or Trading Technologies made electronic markets more accessible to professionals. The same logic applies here: give institutional players better tools, and they bring deeper liquidity, tighter spreads, and more efficient price discovery. Everyone benefits, especially the underlying platforms.
Bigger Ambitions in the Pipeline
The trading terminal may be just the beginning. Sources indicate that Paradigm has explored launching an internal market-making desk for prediction markets, which would be a significant step for a venture capital firm. Traditional VC funds rarely operate trading operations, but crypto-native firms have long blurred the lines between investing and active market participation. Jump Crypto and Alameda Research both built massive trading operations alongside their investment activities, for better or worse.
Paradigm has also reportedly engaged researchers to study the feasibility of prediction market indexes, which could allow investors to gain exposure to baskets of event outcomes rather than individual contracts. The firm has already started collecting prediction market data into a public dashboard, laying the groundwork for the kind of quantitative analysis that professional traders rely on.
These moves collectively suggest Paradigm sees prediction markets not as a side bet but as a core financial infrastructure play. Indexes, data products, and professional terminals are the building blocks of a maturing market, the same components that transformed options and derivatives trading from niche to mainstream over the past few decades.
The Competitive Landscape Is Crowding Fast
Paradigm is not the only one paying attention. Binance is currently beta-testing an in-app prediction market feature within its Wallet app, bringing direct access to its massive user base. Coinbase launched its own prediction market offering in January through a partnership with Kalshi. Crypto.com entered the space with a standalone platform called OG. Even traditional financial players are circling, with CFTC-regulated exchanges exploring event contract offerings.
The institutional interest marks a sharp departure from prediction markets' origins as small-scale academic experiments and niche crypto platforms like Polymarket. What was once a curiosity for political junkies and crypto enthusiasts has become a legitimate market category attracting regulated exchanges, billion-dollar valuations, and now purpose-built professional infrastructure.
For investors and entrepreneurs, the signal is clear. Prediction markets are transitioning from early adoption to infrastructure buildout, and that phase historically creates the most durable value in any emerging sector. The firms building the picks and shovels, the terminals, data feeds, indexes, and liquidity providers, are positioning themselves to capture recurring revenue regardless of which specific platforms win the user-facing battle. Watch for more traditional trading firms to enter the space in coming months, and expect regulatory scrutiny to intensify as volume and institutional participation continue climbing.
