Bitcoin is trading near $62,000 after a brutal 2026, and the people who actually own the most of it are buying, not selling. Traders on the other side of the table aren't so sure the bottom is in.
Bitcoin has spent the past nine months losing nearly half its value. It peaked above $126,000 in October 2025, and by this week it had touched a 21-month low, down roughly 30% year to date. At $62,000, it sits well below where it started 2026, and the question every crypto desk is asking is the same one investors asked in the depths of 2022: is this the bottom, or is there another leg down coming?
Coinbase chief executive Brian Armstrong thinks the worst may already be over. Posting a chart of what he calls bitcoin's four-year cycle, alternating roughly two-year bull and bear phases dating back to 2011, Armstrong said his instinct is that bitcoin bottomed near $60,000. He was careful to hedge that instinct isn't certainty, but he said he remains long the asset and expects it to be significantly higher by 2030. He's called bitcoin "the new digital gold" before, and this is the same bet, made out loud during a drawdown rather than a rally.
The on-chain data gives Armstrong's case some real backing. Long-term holder supply, coins that haven't moved in at least 155 days, has climbed to a record roughly 16.3 million to 16.6 million BTC, according to Glassnode data cited by CoinDesk. That's about 83% of all bitcoin in circulation sitting in wallets that aren't trading. Glassnode reported this week that long-term holders have shifted from net distribution back to net accumulation, adding an estimated 50,000 to 100,000 BTC on a net basis in recent weeks. Exchange reserves, meanwhile, have fallen to a seven-year low near 2.21 million BTC, according to Bitfinex. Coins are leaving exchanges and going quiet. That's the pattern that shows up at the tail end of every prior bear cycle, not the middle of one.
Not every cohort is on board. The Block reported that the biggest wallets, those holding more than 10,000 BTC, are still sitting close to neutral. The strongest buying is coming from the smallest holders, wallets under 1 BTC, and mid-sized entities holding 100 to 1,000 BTC. That's retail and mid-tier money stepping in while the true whales wait. It's accumulation, but it's not unanimous, and the cohort with the deepest pockets hasn't tipped its hand.
The skeptics have a specific, checkable argument, not just vibes. CoinDesk reported on June 23 that bitcoin's realized price, the average price at which every coin last moved on-chain, sits around $53,457. In every major cycle bottom since 2011, including 2018-2019, the March 2020 crash, and 2022, bitcoin has traded just under its realized price before the cycle actually turned. Analyst PlanB warned on July 1 that history says bitcoin could still dip below that realized price before this is over. Long-term holder cost basis, a separate and slightly lower floor, sits closer to $48,000.
There's also a structural problem at the top of the range now. The $66,000 to $69,000 zone that used to be support during the 2025 run has flipped into resistance, according to technical analysts tracking the 50-day and 100-day moving averages clustering near $65,500 to $67,180. Bitcoin would need to reclaim that band convincingly to signal the downtrend is actually broken, and it hasn't come close in weeks.
Money has been leaving spot ETFs too. Santiment tracked roughly $8.475 billion in cumulative ETF outflows since May 6, which it frames as a capitulation signal rather than a vote of confidence. That reversed briefly this week: CoinDesk reported $221 million flowed back into bitcoin ETFs on July 3, ending a painful ten-day outflow streak. One good day doesn't undo two months of redemptions, but it's the first sign institutional money might be turning alongside the on-chain holders.
Peter Schiff, never a bitcoin bull, has said the $58,000 level needs to hold or the market risks falling toward $50,000. Cantor Fitzgerald takes the opposite view, telling clients bitcoin may be only a few months from the bottom of this pullback. Both camps are looking at the same chart and reaching opposite conclusions, which is really the story here: the loudest signal in this market right now isn't consensus, it's disagreement between people who own the asset and people who trade it.
What happened in 2022 is the closest precedent, and it didn't resolve quickly. Bitcoin bottomed near $15,500 that November, months after long-term holders had already started accumulating and well after most traders had given up calling the bottom out loud. If this cycle rhymes, the people buying quietly under $60,000 right now, not the ones calling tops and bottoms on social media, are the ones who'll look right in hindsight. But they looked wrong for months in 2022 before they looked right, and nobody buying today can promise you which month you're in.
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