XRP is sliding into dangerous territory. Despite occasional relief rallies that give the appearance of recovery, the token's price structure tells a different story - one where sellers remain firmly in control and a deeper move toward the $0.87 macro support level is increasingly likely.
The Technical Setup Points Lower
Crypto analyst CasiTrades has been mapping the current XRP trajectory, and the picture is far from bullish. Every attempted bounce over recent sessions has been smothered near the .382 Fibonacci retracement level - a classic technical signal that buying conviction simply isn't there. When relief rallies can't even reclaim a standard retracement threshold, it tells you the market's underlying mechanics are still dominated by distribution.
What makes this particularly notable is the lethargic pace of the decline. The analyst described the descent as slow and grinding - the kind of price action that frustrates traders on both sides because it lacks the cathartic flush of a sharp capitulation event. But slow breakdowns often prove more damaging over time. They erode support levels gradually, bleed out momentum indicators, and quietly trap late buyers who mistake temporary stability for a genuine floor.
$1.31 Is the Line in the Sand
Right now, XRP is hovering around the $1.31 zone, which serves as a critical resistance barrier - specifically identified as the Wave 4 extreme within a broader Elliott Wave structure. In technical analysis, when price struggles at a Wave 4 level after a corrective move, it typically signals that the next impulsive leg is about to unfold in the direction of the prevailing trend. In this case, that direction is down.
CasiTrades is actively tracking a developing Wave 3 move to the downside. The primary target sits around $1.09, with possible subwave extensions reaching as low as $1.06. After that, Elliott Wave theory suggests a temporary Wave 4 bounce could carry XRP back into the $1.22 to $1.31 range before sellers step in again. The ultimate destination? The $0.87 macro support zone - a level that would represent a dramatic compression from where XRP traded during its post-lawsuit optimism.
Why This Matters Beyond the Charts
You don't need to be a technical trader to feel the weight of this setup. XRP's price action exists in a broader context that makes this potential breakdown especially significant. The token surged late last year after Ripple secured a partial legal victory against the SEC, with Judge Analisa Torres ruling that programmatic sales of XRP on public exchanges did not constitute securities transactions. That ruling sent XRP to multi-year highs and fueled speculation that institutional adoption was imminent.
Since then, reality has set in. The broader crypto market has cooled considerably from its peak enthusiasm. Bitcoin has struggled to maintain momentum above key psychological levels, and altcoins - which typically amplify Bitcoin's moves in both directions - have borne the brunt of the pullback. XRP, despite its unique regulatory clarity advantage, has not been immune.
The question worth asking is whether XRP's current weakness is purely cyclical - part of a broader altcoin deleveraging - or whether it reflects something more structural about investor skepticism toward the token's utility narrative. Ripple has made significant strides in cross-border payments and has partnerships with financial institutions across dozens of countries, but token price and enterprise adoption have historically moved on different timelines. The company's business milestones don't automatically translate into immediate demand for the XRP token itself, and the market appears to be repricing that disconnect.
What Comes Next
For investors watching this unfold, the critical level to monitor is that $1.31 resistance. If XRP fails to reclaim and hold above it convincingly, the path of least resistance remains lower. A break below $1.09 would confirm the Wave 3 thesis and likely trigger a cascade of liquidations in leveraged positions, accelerating the move toward sub-$1 territory.
The broader macro environment adds another layer of complexity. As regulatory uncertainty continues to hover over the digital asset space - even with XRP's relative clarity - institutional capital remains cautious. As Bloomberg's market coverage has consistently highlighted, crypto flows remain tightly correlated with risk appetite in traditional markets, and any deterioration in equities sentiment tends to hit altcoins hardest.
If the $0.87 level does come into play, it would represent a critical inflection point. Macro support zones of that magnitude tend to attract significant buying interest, particularly from longer-term accumulators. But getting there could be a painful process for anyone holding XRP at current levels, and the slow, grinding nature of this decline suggests the market hasn't yet found its floor.
