Over 136 million Indian jobs face immediate risk as the COVID-19 lockdown devastates self-employed workers, casual laborers, and entire industries across the country.
According to data from the National Sample Survey (NSS) and Periodic Labour Force Surveys (PLFS), more than 136 million jobs sit at immediate risk due to the economic fallout from the coronavirus lockdown. Those hit hardest are the self-employed, casual laborers, small company employees, and workers without any formal contract to protect them. The non-agrarian sectors have absorbed the worst of the damage, as manufacturing, services, and urban commerce came to a sudden and unforgiving halt.
The images are impossible to forget. Thousands of migrant workers trekked hundreds of miles home as the lockdown began, carrying whatever they could on their backs. The fear was simple and visceral: no work meant no wages, no food for the family, and no way to cover rent in cities that had suddenly stopped paying them. An estimated 120 million migrant workers carried the real burden of this crisis on their shoulders, walking along highways and boarding overcrowded trains in conditions that shocked observers around the world.
Sectors that received no relief even after the partial reopening on April 20 remain in deep trouble. Travel and tourism, leisure and hospitality, and the automobile sector are among those still struggling to find any foothold. Each day of continued restrictions adds to the cumulative damage, and recovery timelines keep getting pushed further out.
Smaller firms, particularly those in the IT sector, are already feeling the strain. But the toll extends to larger IT companies as well. Over 1.5 lakh people from various IT firms across India are expected to lose their jobs in the coming months as contracts dry up and client budgets shrink.
The root cause is clear when you look at where the money comes from. More than 75% of the Indian IT industry's revenues are sourced from exports to large markets like North America and Europe. As the coronavirus spread rapidly through both regions, demand for outsourced services contracted almost overnight, sending ripple effects through the entire Indian IT supply chain.
India's startup ecosystem has not been spared either. Many young companies are implementing pay cuts just to stay afloat. Startups in the $10 to $50 million valuation range face particularly harsh choices, and for most of them, the fastest way to cut costs is to reduce headcount. Founders who were scaling aggressively just months ago are now making difficult decisions about which positions to eliminate first.
A number of startup founders and venture capitalists have submitted requests to the government asking for a robust relief package to help them combat the severe impact on their businesses due to COVID-19. Whether that assistance arrives in time to prevent widespread closures remains an open question that many in the ecosystem are watching closely.
The media industry has taken its own share of casualties. Mandatory leave without pay and outright layoffs have been sanctioned by many prominent media houses struggling with collapsed advertising revenue. Two of the leading newspapers, The Indian Express and Business Standard, have announced pay cuts across their organizations. Digital outlet The Quint has also asked approximately 45 employees to go on leave without pay, a sign that even newer media formats are not immune to the downturn.
Aviation and hospitality are staring at staggering numbers. More than 20 lakh jobs are at risk in India's aviation sector alone, as domestic and international travel restrictions show no signs of lifting soon. The Indian hospitality and tourism industry faces potential job losses of around 38 million if the situation does not improve, a figure that would devastate regional economies built around travel and tourism.
The export sector has also been paralyzed by the global slowdown. India's merchandise exports shrank by a record 34.6%, reflecting the collapse in demand from key trading partners. Factories that once ran multiple shifts now sit idle, and supply chain disruptions mean that even producers with orders are struggling to ship goods to market.
What makes this crisis particularly difficult is its breadth. It is not confined to one industry or one type of worker. From daily wage laborers walking home to software engineers awaiting pink slips, from startup founders pleading for relief to newspaper editors cutting salaries, the economic pain cuts across every segment of Indian society. The recovery, when it comes, will need to be just as broad.
